1. Price trend
According to the data (average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on January 7, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC (8311, - 43.00, - 0.51%) was 8340 yuan / ton, an increase of 20 yuan / ton compared with 8320 yuan / ton before the festival, an increase of 0.24%, and an increase of 17.26% compared with the same period last year.
2. Market analysis
In the first week after the festival, the PVC market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the price increased by 0.24% during the week. At the beginning of last week, the disk fluctuated strongly, and the PVC futures price rose, driving the spot market to rise slightly, but most enterprises adjusted within 50 yuan / ton, and some enterprises did not adjust the price; In the middle and late weeks of the week, the futures stopped rising and turned down, the spot price of PVC fell slightly, and the downstream kept just in need of procurement and bargain hunting, and the trading atmosphere in the market improved slightly; At the weekend, problems occurred in Zhonggu mining plant in Inner Mongolia, but its operation was not high, so it had no great impact on the overall supply of the market. Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream product industry has been on holiday, the demand continues to weaken, and there is no good news in the market. Therefore, the short-term inflection point is unknown, and the PVC fundamentals continue to be weak. As of the end of last week, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises was mostly around 8200-8850 yuan / ton. The pvc5 electric stone delivered in Tianjin was 8400-8450 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou was 8500-8600 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou was 8450-8500 yuan / ton; Domestic market prices fluctuate little.
According to the weekly increase and decrease from October 18, 2021 to January 9, 2022, the domestic PVC mainly decreased in the cycle, with the largest decrease of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price fluctuation is small, and the range is within 3%. In the cycle, there is less bullish and more decline, and the market is weak.
For the external price, CFR China maintains US $1330 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia maintains US $1340 / ton, and CFR India maintains US $1550 / ton.
International crude oil prices fell on January 7. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $78.90/barrel, down US $0.56 or 0.7%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.75/barrel, down US $0.24 or 0.3%. The US employment data is not ideal, the expected cooling of demand has overshadowed supply side concerns such as Libya's production reduction, and the oil price is under pressure.
Ethylene, on January 7, the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $871-889 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market fell and the demand was general. On January 7, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1557-1567 / ton, up US $2 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1441-1449 / ton, up US $6 / ton. On January 7, in the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $971-981 / ton, down US $45 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $961-971 / ton, down US $40 / ton. Affected by the decline of upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market may mainly fall below in the later stage.
On January 10, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4583.33, a decrease of 0.72% compared with January 1 (4616.67). The price of raw material blue carbon was adjusted at a low level, and the cost support of calcium carbide was weakened. Meanwhile, the downstream PVC market has continued to decline recently, and the downstream customers' enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. On the whole, the upstream support of calcium carbide was insufficient, the downstream demand was general, and the price of calcium carbide fell slightly. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly.
3. Future forecast
At present, the cost support is OK, but near the Spring Festival, the downstream demand continues to weaken, the inventory of PVC enterprises increases, and there is a certain pressure on sales. It is expected that PVC will continue to maintain a weak trend in the short term.
