From March 30 to April 1, the 2022 National Titanium Dioxide Industry Annual Conference was held in Chongqing. It was learned from the meeting that in 2022, the output and capacity of titanium dioxide will continue to grow, and the concentration ratio of capacity will further increase; At the same time, the scale of existing producers will further expand, and an increase in non industry investment projects will lead to a shortage of titanium ore supply. In addition, with the rise of new energy battery material industry, the construction or preparation of a large number of iron phosphate or lithium iron phosphate projects will lead to a surge in production capacity of titanium dioxide and aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand of titanium ore. At that time, the market prospects and industry outlook are worrying, and all parties should pay high attention and make timely adjustments.
The total production capacity of the industry has reached 4.7 million tons
According to statistics, in 2022, China's titanium dioxide industry will have 43 full process manufacturers with normal production conditions, except for shutdown. Among them, there are 2 companies with pure chlorination process (CITIC Titanium Industry, Yibin Tianyuan Haifeng and Tai), 3 companies with sulfuric acid process and chlorination process (Longbai, Pangang Vanadium Titanium, and Lubei Chemical (6.470, -0.07, -1.07%)), and the remaining 38 companies all use sulfuric acid process.
In 2022, the comprehensive output of 43 full process titanium dioxide enterprises will be 3.914 million tons, an increase of 124 thousand tons over the previous year, or 3.27%. Among them, the rutile type is 3.261 million tons, accounting for 83.32%; The sharp titanium type is 486000 tons, accounting for 12.42%; Non pigment grade and other products account for 167000 tons, accounting for 4.26%.
In 2022, the total effective capacity of titanium dioxide in the whole industry will be 4.7 million tons/year, the total output will be 3.914 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be 83.28%.
The industrial concentration ratio keeps improving
In 2022, there will be one super large enterprise whose actual output of titanium dioxide will reach more than 1 million tons; 11 large enterprises with a production capacity of 100000 tons or more; 7 medium-sized enterprises with a production capacity of 50000 to 100000 tons; The remaining 25 manufacturers are all small and micro enterprises.
At that time, the comprehensive production of the top 11 manufacturers in the industry was 2.786 million tons, accounting for 71.18% of the total industry production that year; The comprehensive output of 7 medium-sized enterprises is 5500000 tons, accounting for 14.05%; The comprehensive output of the other 25 small and micro enterprises is 578000 tons, accounting for 14.77%. Among the full process production enterprises, there were 17 with an increase in output compared to the previous year, accounting for 39.53%; 25 companies decreased, accounting for 58.14%; One company remained unchanged, accounting for 2.33%.
In 2022, the comprehensive output of chlorination titanium dioxide of five chlorination enterprises in China will be 497000 tons, an increase of 120000 tons over the previous year, or 3.19%. In 2022, the output of chlorinated titanium dioxide will account for 12.70% of the total output of titanium dioxide in China that year; It accounted for 15.24% of the output of Rutile Titanium Dioxide in that year, which was significantly higher than that of the previous year.
In 2022, the domestic output of titanium dioxide will be 3.914 million tons, the import volume will be 12.3 million tons, the export volume will be 1.406 million tons, and the apparent market demand will be 2.631 million tons, 1.88 kg per capita, about 55% of the per capita level in developed countries.
Further expansion of manufacturer scale
Among the disclosed expansion or new construction projects being implemented by existing titanium dioxide manufacturers, at least 6 projects will be completed and put into operation from 2022 to 2023, with an additional scale of more than 610000 tons/year. By the end of 2023, the total production scale of existing titanium dioxide enterprises will reach about 5.3 million tons/year.
According to public information, there are at least 4 non industrial investment titanium dioxide projects under construction and to be completed by the end of 2023, with a design capacity of more than 660000 tons/year. By the end of 2023, China's total production capacity of titanium dioxide will reach at least 6 million tons/year.
The industry chain of putting the cart before the horse - new energy projects
At present, the titanium dioxide industry deserves more attention. With the rise of the new energy battery material industry, a large number of iron phosphate or lithium iron phosphate projects inside and outside the industry are under construction or planning, most of which start from iron sources. The most convenient and economical source of iron is ferrous sulfate, which is the main by-product in the production of titanium dioxide by sulfuric acid process. In this way, ferrous sulfate has changed from the heavy burden of the sulfuric acid titanium dioxide enterprises to the "sweet cake".
As a result, a large number of new energy projects are being launched or planned around the country (including non titanium dioxide enterprises), which has overturned the previous understanding of the industry and created an industry chain where the main product is ferrous sulfate and the by-product is titanium dioxide. This actually avoids the policy bottleneck of the restriction of titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process. Five listed companies with titanium dioxide as the main business, including CHTI, Anada,LB Group, Jinpu Titanium Industry and Huiyun Titanium Industry, are all planning to build iron phosphate new energy material projects. In the titanium dioxide industry, more and more unlisted enterprises and non titanium dioxide enterprises have taken such measures.
The production capacity of most of these projects is 100000~200000 tons/year, and the corresponding by-product titanium dioxide production capacity is 150000~300000 tons/year. It can be expected that in a few years, even if only part of such projects can be realized, the total capacity of China's titanium dioxide industry may exceed 10 million tons/year. At that time, the market prospects and industry outlook were unimaginable.
Based on the above data, even if the titanium dioxide capacity involved in the above new energy materials is not included, by 2023, the total capacity of China's titanium dioxide industry will reach about 6 million tons/year, accounting for about 63% of the global total capacity of million tons of titanium dioxide. If the normal operating rate of the industry is 83%~85%, the total annual output of titanium dioxide will reach 5~5.1 million tons.
Most titanium ore raw materials rely on imports
It is reported that the total production capacity of five chlorination enterprises in China for boiling chlorination in 2022 is 960000 tons/year, and it will increase by another 160000 tons/year in 2023, reaching over 1.1 million tons/year. Against the backdrop of the industrialization and mass production of high-grade titanium raw materials used in the preparation of boiling chlorination method from Panzhihua titanium concentrate, the production capacity of these boiling chlorination methods requires over 1.6 million tons of high-grade titanium raw materials. Except for small smelters in some regions in China that can provide a small amount of products, the vast majority can only rely on imported high-quality titanium ore for reprocessing and refining, or directly importing high-grade titanium raw materials.
However, in recent years, multiple sources of information have shown that the exploration or production of high-grade (ton TiO2 ≥ 92%) titanium raw materials in the international market has not only made significant progress, but also shown a downward trend. It is an indisputable fact that the titanium raw materials needed for the future boiling chlorination titanium dioxide are in short supply. Therefore, in addition to high investment and high-end technology and talents, the stable source of high-grade titanium raw materials is a key issue for the new boiling chlorination titanium dioxide project.
In 2022, China's titanium dioxide industry will consume about 7.8 million to 8.2 million tons of titanium ore raw materials by the sulfuric acid process, and other titanium related industries will consume about 1 million tons of titanium ore equivalent to ilmenite. In addition to imported high-grade titanium raw materials for boiling chlorination, the total consumption of titanium ore in China will exceed 9 million tons. By 2023, titanium dioxide industry will need more than 13 million tons of titanium raw materials per year, and other titanium related industries will need about 1.2 million tons of titanium ore. The total market demand is at least about 14.2 million tons per year. If a portion of dozens of new energy projects in China are completed and put into operation, the demand for titanium ore will definitely increase significantly again.
Bi Sheng pointed out that currently, the main production areas of domestic titanium ore are the Panxi region in Sichuan, the Chengde region in Hebei, and the expansion of production capacity in smaller mines in Shandong, Xinjiang, and other regions is limited. The overall number of imported mines is showing a downward trend, and there are also many uncertain factors in the arrival shipping schedule. In 2022, the import of titanium ore nationwide decreased by 333000 tons year-on-year, with a decrease of 8.77%. In the future, it is highly likely that the market supply and demand of titanium ore raw materials will be unbalanced.
So far, among the full process titanium dioxide producers, only 5 have their own titanium ore raw material resources, and the rest can only purchase raw materials through different channels, which brings uncertainty to normal production to a large extent.
Not only is the supply of high-grade titanium raw materials used in the production of titanium dioxide by boiling chlorination process a problem, but titanium dioxide by sulfuric acid process also faces the bottleneck of titanium raw materials shortage.
