The positive support of the PVA market still exists, and prices are gradually rising

September 05, 2023

Pva 088 50 G Jpg

Market Analysis

The Pva （Polyvinyl alcohol ） market prices are rising locally. The average market price of PVA is 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton or 3.83% compared to the previous working day. The reference range for PVA1799 # market price is around 12000-12500 yuan/ton (high-end market offer price).

Analysis of the reasons for price increase

1. On the supply side, the operation of various manufacturers' devices is stable. Due to early orders from various manufacturers, the inventory of manufacturers is currently at a low level, and there is a shortage of spot supply for individual models in the market.

2. On the cost side, the current market price of vinyl acetate is stagnant, with a market transaction price of around 6300-7000 yuan/ton (high-end purchase and export market negotiations on high-end prices). The calcium carbide market is at a high level of consolidation, and the mainstream factory prices of calcium carbide enterprises in Wuhai and Ningxia regions remain around 3250-3300 yuan/ton. It can be seen that the price of raw materials has been hovering at a high level, providing stable support for the PVA market.

3. On the demand side, due to the rising price of raw material vinyl acetate in August, overseas manufacturers actively prepared in advance, resulting in an increase in export orders. At present, there has been no improvement in downstream demand in China, and actual orders remain in high demand. In summary, there is recent support on the demand side.

Future Market Forecast

The short-term positive support for the polyvinyl alcohol market still exists, and there may be some improvement in downstream demand entering the "Jinjiu" market. However, the psychological burden of accepting new prices at the end is heavy, and the price rise is limited. Baichuan Yingfu expects the PVA price to remain strong at a high level in the near future, and it is not ruled out that other manufacturers will continue to follow suit, with a range of 0-500 yuan/ton. Keep an eye on the cumulative inventory situation of each company.

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