Introduction
In February, due to certain changes in market participants' expectations for the follow-up market, PVC futures prices rose and fell significantly, and the spot price fluctuated with it. At present, the overall fundamentals of PVC spot are weak. It is expected that the short-term price may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. However, with the development of both ends of supply and demand, it is expected that the subsequent market fundamentals will gradually strengthen. This paper will summarize the influencing factors of PVC market from March to may, and predict the subsequent price trend.
In February, the overall rise and fall range of PVC market was large. The fluctuation range of PVC electric stone type 5 in East China was more than 600 yuan / ton. The main contract of PVC futures reached the high point of 9334 yuan / ton since November 2021 on February 11. With the change of market participants' expectations for the follow-up market and the weakening of the overall fundamentals, the spot price of PVC fell back. At present, the fundamentals of PVC spot are still weak, and the overall supply is still slightly greater than demand. However, with the development of both supply and demand, it is expected that the fundamentals will gradually strengthen.
In March, the market is expected to be cautious and optimistic, and the fundamentals may strengthen, but the degree of strengthening is expected to be limited. It is expected that the market price will fluctuate in a narrow range, and the price focus will move up slightly.
In terms of supply, the operating load rate of individual enterprises is expected to decrease in March, but there are few enterprises planning to overhaul in March. The second unit of Bohai Chemical development plans to start up in March, and the overall supply of PVC is expected to increase compared with February.
In terms of demand, it is expected that the start-up of downstream product enterprises will gradually increase in March. With the reduction of raw material inventory and finished product inventory, the enthusiasm for purchasing PVC may increase. In addition, recently, due to the high price of crude oil and the strong trend of PVC external price, there are some new export orders in China, and the export volume is expected to increase in March, The addition and delivery of export orders will also divide the domestic PVC supply and support the domestic PVC spot market price to a certain extent. With the strengthening of fundamentals, it is expected that the seasonal accumulation of PVC social inventory will gradually end, and the social inventory may have an inflection point in mid and late March.
In terms of cost, with the recent rise of VCM price, the cost of domestic enterprises importing VCM will increase, and some may face losses; At present, the cost support of calcium carbide is strong. Today, the ex factory price rises slightly, and the price inflection point appears. It is expected that the subsequent price of calcium carbide will rise again, and the cost support of PVC by calcium carbide method may be gradually obvious.
In addition to the fundamental changes, there are still some uncertain factors in the macro aspect, and we need to pay attention to the macro atmosphere and the psychological changes of futures participants.
From April to may, it is expected that the market fundamentals will continue to strengthen, the price may fluctuate higher, and the price focus is expected to move further upward.
With the further improvement of downstream construction, the PVC market is expected to enter the peak season, the replenishment frequency of downstream PVC products enterprises will be increased, and the social inventory is expected to further decline and enter the seasonal destocking stage. However, due to the current small overall order volume of PVC pipe and profile enterprises, the degree of just need recovery still needs to pay further attention to the order changes of product enterprises. At the supply side, the maintenance of PVC devices is relatively concentrated from April to may, and the spot supply of PVC may be tightened compared with February to March. The fundamentals are expected to further strengthen, driving the rise of PVC market prices.
As PVC powder downstream pipes, profiles, flooring products and other products are mostly related to the real estate industry, in the long run, the macro atmosphere is still one of the important reasons affecting the market trend. Market participants still need to continue to pay attention to whether the follow-up policies related to real estate are further relaxed, and whether there are signs of improvement or turning points in various indicators of real estate.
