According to the survey, the domestic EVA output in December was 179000 tons, an increase of 26.02% month on month, while the photovoltaic EVA output reached a new low throughout the year, with the production scheduling ratio of only 30.45%, about 54500 tons, a decrease of 7.63% month on month. Up to now, the EVA photovoltaic material inventory for manufacturers has been basically cleared, and part of the inventory has been transferred to traders.
Looking back to the year 2022, the total output of EVA is 1.6472 million tons, of which the cumulative output of photovoltaic EVA is 988500 tons. The production of photovoltaic EVA reached 60.01% throughout the year. The domestic cumulative EVA production capacity has reached 2.09 million tons/year. At present, there are 11 PV grade EVA manufacturers in China, including Jiangsu Silbang, Ningbo Formosa Plastics, Lianhong, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Yuneng Chemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou, Zhongke Refining Chemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, Tianli Hi Tech, and Yangzi BASF. The annual production schedule of Zhejiang Petrochemical is PV grade EVA, and other plants can flexibly adjust their production plans according to market demand, so as to schedule the production of EVA of different brands.
There are two main reasons for the new low production of photovoltaic materials in December: first, the production of photovoltaic grade EVA in October is high but the market is slow to digest, and the upstream and downstream are generally pessimistic about December and January. The inventory pressure has led manufacturers to significantly reduce the production of EVA photovoltaic materials. Second, EVA foamed cable material has a better liquidity than photovoltaic material (the purchase of traders has driven the commodity liquidity), and the current EVA price has stabilized and is at a low level. The traders of foamed/cable material and large buyers have purchased a large number of high priced goods in the early stage. In order to smooth the inventory cost, they began to replenish the warehouse. For particle manufacturers, in order to speed up the recovery of funds at the end of the year, they planned production this month with foam The cable materials are mainly of the brands with relatively high liquidity.
It can be seen from the EVA monthly output in the above figure that the annual PV EVA production scheduling ratio is below the average in January, March, September, November and December. From January to March, the photovoltaic market started, while the second half of the year was a period of weakness in the photovoltaic market. The manufacturer's attitude towards the market was reflected in the proportion of photovoltaic EVA production, and the market was obviously in a very pessimistic mood in November and December. Under the low production schedule of photovoltaic EVA in recent two months, the inventory of photovoltaic materials has been effectively reduced. Up to now, the manufacturer's inventory has been basically cleared, and part of the inventory has been transferred to traders.
Based on the current inventory of EVA manufacturers, the impact of superposing the price reduction of raw materials in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain on the demand in the middle reaches of the photovoltaic industry will soon be reflected. We expect that the proportion of photovoltaic material production in January will increase significantly month on month, and the output of photovoltaic EVA in January will be about 109000 tons, which will increase by 70% - 100% month on month.
