Oversupply of DOP in the first half of the year, resulting in a decline in prices

July 20, 2023

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Introduction: In the first half of 2023, the overall DOP industry chain market still showed a pattern of oversupply, with a year-on-year increase of 13.37% in production and an increase in supply pressure. However, the market consumption side showed a slight narrowing trend, with market prices under pressure and a year-on-year decrease of 15.77%. For most of the first half of the year, profit margins narrowed and gross profit decreased by 36.71%.

In the first half of the year, the average price in the DOP market (Shandong region) was at 9739 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 15.77%. At the beginning of the year, the market prices showed an upward trend. Before the Spring Festival holiday, market merchants appropriately reserved raw materials for octanol, and DOP prices strengthened with octanol. However, end users returned to the market late after the year, making it difficult to maintain high DOP market prices. Weak demand and inventory accumulation led to a downward trend in DOP. End users continued to buy weekly, causing DOP prices to fluctuate and decline. Until the May Day period, octanol devices suddenly stopped production, driving octanol prices to rise significantly, The price of DOP has followed up to the highest point within the year, but the high price is difficult to pass on downstream, resulting in a short duration of high prices and a rational correction in prices. With the recovery of octanol production facilities, the decline rate of DOP has accelerated, and both octanol and DOP prices have dropped to the lowest level within the year. The significant release of transactions has supported a slight rebound in prices.

From the perspective of production, the production in the first half of 2023 has exceeded half of that in 2022, and the annual production is expected to exceed the same period last year. This has led to an appropriate increase in apparent consumption, while the export volume has significantly increased in 2023, which is under pressure to consume some domestic goods.

In the second half of 2023, there is an expectation of continued growth in DOP production, while import volume remains low and export volume is relatively stable. Actual consumption is expected to be lower than apparent data, and the overall market will still show an oversupply pattern.

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