From September to October 2022, foam grade and cable grade EVA will usher in the seasonal peak demand season, with the demand for PV grade EVA rising, while the domestic PV grade supply has been fully released, and the overseas PV grade import increment is limited. The reason is that the supply gap caused by the shortage of natural gas in Europe in winter is expanding, and the upstream production problems in the United States drag EVA exports.
Globally, China's EVA price is on the low side. With the improvement of the supply-demand relationship, China's EVA price still has great potential for improvement, and will break through the historical high point and continue to rise this year.
1) EVA demand peak season is approaching, and Asia's export increment to China is limited
As foam grade and cable grade EVA usher in the seasonal demand peak season, the domestic EVA supply and demand pattern will be significantly improved.
Changjiang Securities judges that although the price center of EVA will be improved in the future, it is still difficult for major exporting countries in Asia to increase EVA exports to China. The main reasons include:
① Compared with India and Southeast Asian countries, the average export unit price of EVA exported from South Korea and Taiwan, China to the mainland is relatively low;
② At present, South Korea and Taiwan, China account for a relatively high proportion of EVA exports to the mainland. Considering that India and Southeast Asia will also enter the peak season of EVA demand, there is little room for improvement in EVA exports from South Korea and Taiwan, China to the mainland.
2) The supply and demand pattern of the European EVA market is tight, and the shortage of natural gas in winter may lead to a widening gap between supply and demand
Affected by the energy crisis, the current EVA price in Europe may be at a global high.
According to chemanalyst data, at the end of the first quarter of this year, the import price of EVA (VA content 28%) at Hamburg Port in Europe once soared to 5520 US dollars per ton (corresponding to RMB tax inclusive price of about 42126 yuan per ton), and the price continued to climb in the second quarter.
With the arrival of the heating season, it is expected that the price of natural gas in Europe will rise significantly, and the price of methanol will also rise accordingly. As EVA_ As an important raw material in the upstream, the price increase of methanol will support the price of EVA to remain strong.
In addition, in May, Celanese, the largest supplier of vinyl acetate in Europe and the United States, announced that the company's production of vinyl acetate in Europe and the United States encountered force majeure, which also dragged down EVA production and supply and exacerbated the shortage of EVA supply in Europe.
Under the situation of short supply and high price of EVA in Europe, Asian EVA manufacturers are expected to realize export arbitrage to Europe.
3) EVA price will reach a new high, and downstream manufacturers may be under pressure
Globally, the current EVA price in China is on the low side. With the continuous improvement of domestic supply-demand relationship, EVA price will be significantly increased. Considering the tight supply-demand relationship, Europe
The EVA price has exceeded 5500 US dollars per ton (corresponding to RMB tax inclusive price of about 41974 yuan per ton), and the EVA price in China has the potential to set a new record in the future.
At the same time, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the rise of EVA price. For every 10000 yuan / ton increase in EVA price, the production cost of sole will increase by 0.7 yuan / pair, accounting for about 1.2% of the production cost of sports and leisure shoes, and the OEM price will be about 0.9%; It accounts for about 0.8% of the production cost of sports sandals and about 0.7% of the selling price of OEM. Judge even if the subsequent EVA price is large Rising, downstream manufacturers may still be under full pressure.
