2022 is a very unusual year, and it will certainly be a year to be talked about in the future. Because the market revealed a lot of unexpected situations and changes, the PVC value in the year was weak, and the PVC value in the first half of the year fluctuated and was appropriate. Since the middle of the year, the PVC value has continued to decline, again falling to the low level before the epidemic, with a decline of about 3600 yuan/ton in the year. The weak trend is the reflection of the imbalance between supply and demand, which is caused by many reasons: first, the back and forth of the epidemic, second, the poor economic recovery, and third, the continued downturn in the downstream industry. At the end of the year, what changes will be revealed in the supply and demand pattern of PVC products? Let's analyze it from several aspects:
Since 2022, the variation range of PVC operating rate within the country has been expanded, basically varying from 68% to 80%. The decline in the operating rate of PVC plants at some time was mainly due to the maintenance, parking and load reduction of some PVC plants. As of the beginning of December, some domestic PVC production enterprises were still in the state of shutdown or load reduction, limiting the improvement of the operating rate. The operating rate of all PVC plants was still low, about 69.03%.
In 2022, the PVC industry will still be affected by the epidemic situation and the commencement will decline. However, due to the growth of production capacity and the favorable export situation under some conditions, the PVC output will still increase. As of October 2022, the domestic PVC output will be 1.7583 million tons, down 0.67% month on month and up 4.51% year on year; From January to October 2022, the total output will be 18.3702 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 0.99%.
As of (December 5), the total storage of sample warehouses in East and South China has decreased, and the social storage in East and South China is about 248500 tons, a month on month decrease of 8.64%. The inventory of sample warehouses in East China is about 199500 tons, and that in South China is about 49000 tons.
As of December 5, the inventory of domestic PVC sample production companies has decreased this week, about 256,500 tons, down 1.16% month on month.
In 2022, there will still be a surplus of domestic supply to meet domestic demand, while overseas supply will be tight, so domestic imports will remain at a low level. This low point is February. The monthly import volume is about 21500 tons, an increase of about 9.69% year on year. As of October, the monthly import volume of PVC was about 34,100 tons, decreasing by 1.05% month on month, which is still at a low level.
In the first half of 2022, the cost of PVC in foreign countries is on the high side against the background of the explosion of crude oil. In addition, due to the problems of load reduction and shutdown of some foreign PVC plants due to raw material problems, the overseas supply is bound to be tightened. PVC in the country has a certain price advantage. The domestic PVC export volume has increased month by month, reaching a historic high again in April. In the second half of the year, due to sluggish domestic and international requirements, PVC exports decreased. As of October, the export volume of PVC in a single month has further dropped, but it is still at a high level, about 105300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.29% and 5.73%.
In 2022, the epidemic situation will be normalized and the economic situation will be general. The downstream requirements have not been improved significantly, and the apparent consumption of PVC within the country will continue to decline. As of October 2022, the apparent consumption of PVC is about 1.6425 million tons, down 2.79% month on month and up 2.57% year on year.
From 2021-2022, the operating rate of PVC downstream enterprises will remain low, about 50-65%. By the end of November, the operating rate of PVC downstream sample enterprises had fluctuated at about 53%, the operating rate of large downstream companies ranged from 40% to 60%, the operating rate of small and medium-sized companies ranged from 1% to 40%, some enterprises were shut down, all of them were in a general state of receiving goods, and the wait-and-see mood was strong, and the number of orders received was low.
