Introduction
In April, China's PVC powder export data reached a new high. The net export volume exceeded market expectations, and the high export level effectively made up for the shortage of domestic demand. Although there is still support for short-term exports, there are signs of export weakness in the later stage.
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of the people's Republic of China, the export volume of PVC powder in April 2022 was 278400 tons, a new high in recent years, with an increase year-on-year and month on month. In April, the import volume of PVC powder was 27600 tons, which decreased slightly month on month. When the export volume increased and the import volume decreased slightly, the net export volume continued to rise in April and gradually differentiated the domestic PVC supply, which was also the main reason for the weakening of domestic demand in April, but the warehouse inventory in East / South China did not increase.
In April 2022, the total export volume of PVC powder was 278400 tons, of which general trade still dominated, accounting for 87.2%. The significant increase in export volume in April was mainly due to the successive delivery of export orders in the early stage. From February to March, domestic export arbitrage remained open, while the demand in Southeast Asia and South Asia was ok, the export enthusiasm of PVC manufacturers and traders was improved, and the domestic export order receiving was better.
In April 2022, the total amount of PVC powder exported to India was 99100 tons, an increase of 46.98% over February, accounting for 35.6% of the total domestic PVC powder export in April. The number of domestic PVC powder exported to India remained high, mainly because India's PVC anti-dumping policy against China expired on February 19, 2022, and the advantage of China's PVC powder exported to India increased. In addition, the output of PVC powder was large in April, mainly exported to Turkey, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, etc.
The pending delivery volume of short-term PVC powder export is still high, and the long-term export deposit is expected to weaken
It is reported that with the devaluation of RMB and the reduction of domestic PVC powder prices, PVC powder exports continued to receive orders in May, and the export to be delivered remained relatively high, so there is still support for short-term exports. However, on May 18, Formosa Plastics announced the quotation of PVC cargo in June 2022, with the price reduced by US $13050 / ton, US $1170 / ton FOB Taiwan, US $1210 / ton CIF China and US $1410 / ton CIF India. Then the PVC price in Asia followed the downward trend. The reduction of Formosa Plastics pre-sale price is bad for the mentality of market participants, because after the price reduction, the agent said that the receipt of orders is still poor and there is pressure on export transactions. At the same time, the export price of domestic PVC powder has also been reduced. The FOB Tianjin quotation of some calcium carbide method is about 1150 US dollars / ton, but it is difficult to clinch a deal. Although there is a certain deal in the supply of ethylene method, it is reported that it is basically received by agents.
According to the survey, there are still some advantages of exporting to the west, but the agents said that the demand in Southeast Asia and South Asia is weak, especially in South Asia, which has gradually entered the rainy season. In addition, the early orders have arrived one after another, and the short-term demand may decline. Some agents said that they have made import offers one after another. Therefore, in the long run, the resistance of PVC export order receiving will gradually increase, and the export will weaken.
