1、 Overview
DOP, namely dioctyl phthalate, is an organic ester compound and a commonly used Plasticizer. It is mainly used in the processing of PVC Resin, chemical fiber resin, acetic acid resin, ABS resin, rubber and other polymers, as well as paint, dye, dispersant, etc. According to different uses, DOP can be mainly divided into general level DOP, electrical level DOP, food level DOP and medical level DOP.
2、 Industrial chain analysis
1. Industrial chain
The upstream of DOP industry chain is mainly composed of isooctanol, phthalic anhydride and other raw materials; The middle reaches are DOP production and supply links; Downstream is mainly used in PVC, artificial leather, wire and cable, food packaging, medicine and health and other fields.
2. Upstream end analysis
Isooctanol is one of the most important raw materials of DOP, and its price trend largely affects the development of the industry. In 2021, due to the hot propylene market, the price of isooctanol will continue to rise, and then the price will begin to fall back. By July 2022, the price of isooctanol will fall back to 8231 yuan/ton.
3. Downstream end analysis
PVC products are the largest demand area of DOP. With the steady development of China's economy in recent years, the production capacity of China's PVC industry is also growing. According to data, the production capacity of China's PVC industry will reach 27.13 million tons in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%.
3、 Industry status
1. Output
As an important general plasticizer, DOP has developed rapidly with the development of China's economy in recent years. From the perspective of output, in recent years, the overall DOP output has been in a volatile trend. Since 2019, due to the rising prices of raw materials and the strong support of the state for environment-friendly plasticizers, China's DOP output has been declining. According to data, China's DOP output will be 1.288 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%.
2. Price
From the price perspective, in the first half of 2021, due to the rise of raw material prices, DOP prices also kept rising, once exceeding 15000 yuan/ton. Then, with the fall of raw material prices and the weakening of demand, DOP prices began to continue to decline. By July 2022, DOP prices fell to 8974 yuan/ton.
3. Consumption
The main consumption fields of DOP in China are PVC artificial leather, cable materials, shrink film and calendered film, PVC floor wallpaper and pipe materials. Among them, the application proportion of PVC film and PVC leather is relatively high. With the rising requirements of low-carbon environmental protection, the market is gradually moving towards the ecological direction of cleaner production. The demand for traditional PVC products is gradually squeezed, and the corresponding DOP plasticizer dosage is also impacted, with a downward trend in demand. According to data, in 2021, China's DOP demand will be 1.293 million tons, down 6.1% year on year.
4. Imports
From the perspective of imports, China's DOP is mainly imported. In recent years, with the strong support of the state for environment-friendly plasticizers, China's DOP imports have shown a downward trend, from 187500 tons in 2015 to 15900 tons in 2020. In 2021, the import volume rose slightly to 38100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 139.6%, and the import amount was 67 million dollars, a year-on-year increase of 346.7%.
From the perspective of import distribution, Taiwan, China of China is the most important source of DOP imports in China, accounting for 68.5% of the import value in 2021, followed by South Korea and Malaysia, accounting for 16.2% and 11.5% respectively.
5. Export situation
From the perspective of export, China's DOP export volume has shown an upward trend in recent years. By 2021, the export volume will reach 33000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 106.3%, and the export amount will be 57 million dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 242.4%.
From the perspective of export distribution, the top three regions in China's DOP export amount in 2021 are Vietnam, Egypt and Indonesia, accounting for 13.6%, 11.6% and 10.2% respectively.
6. Average import and export price
From the perspective of average import and export prices, in recent years, the gap between the average import and export prices of China's DOP is small and basically stable, and the average import and export prices will increase in 2021. Specifically, in 2021, the average import price of China's DOP will be 1760.3 US dollars/ton, with a year-on-year growth of 81.5%, and the average export price will be 1727.2 US dollars/ton, with a year-on-year growth of 65.8%.
5、 Development trend
Traditional phthalate plasticizers are the most widely used plasticizers at home and abroad, accounting for about 85% of the market. Because of its low cost, superior performance and mature technology, it has been widely used in packaging materials, cosmetics, medical appliances and other fields. Since 1982, the carcinogenicity of dioctyl phthalate was studied by the authoritative National Cancer Institute of the United States, the toxicity of phthalate plasticizers has attracted extensive attention from all walks of life. In addition to its own toxicity, o-benzene plasticizers have the risk of migration in the process of use, which further increases the harm to the environment and health. At present, countries all over the world have formulated strict standards and regulations for products containing phthalate plasticizers. With the increasing awareness of environmental protection and the demand for multi-functional plastics, the research and development of new environment-friendly plasticizers has become the development trend of the plasticizer industry. Each environment-friendly plasticizer has its advantages and disadvantages, and there are some problems in the production process, such as immature technology, high cost, low efficiency, and many by-products. Therefore, the environment-friendly plasticizer needs further research and performance improvement.
